Football

This season was an opportunity for Marcus Rashford which has slipped away

Wayne Rooney was blunt.

“What I hope is that Marcus Rashford f***ing gets his head out of his a*** and goes and breaks that record. He is a Manchester lad.”

Yet the idea that Rashford might stay at Manchester United to take Rooney’s status as record goalscorer is seeming less and less likely. His meteoric rise from a surprise starter against FC Midtjylland in 2016 to borderline national treasure has stalled. It did not have to be this way.

Wembley Stadium. London. 11th July 2021. England vs Italy in the final of Euro 2020. It’s 2–2 on penalties and Marcus Rashford stepped up to take England’s third and put them 3–2 up. His slow run-up sends Gianluigi Donnarumma the wrong way. Yet the ball agonisingly slowly clips the Italian’s right-hand post and ricochets away. Rashford, brought on bizarrely late specifically to take this penalty, holds his head in his hands. You know the rest.

For what it’s worth Rashford’s penalty was not that bad. His technique was much the same as that used 47 days earlier in the Europa League final in Gdansk when he sent Gerónimo Rulli of Villareal the wrong way for Manchester United. Then his kick hit the back of the net, although he still ended up on the losing side.

The fact was, however, that Rashford’s miss against Italy capped a personally disappointing campaign. He played just 84 minutes of England’s journey to the final. He had no shots, no assists and no goals.

Yet, as he dusted himself off Rashford could have looked back at Euro 2020 and forward to Qatar 2022 and seen an opportunity. One of the key lessons from England’s Euro campaign was their reliance on Harry Kane and Raheem Sterling. Only John Stones (679) and Kalvin Phillips (665) played more minutes than Kane (649) and Sterling (641) at Euro 2020. The forwards had the most shots and highest expected goals ratings of any England player with Maguire and Mount coming distant thirds respectively.

Kane and Sterling were not just at the end of movements; they also involved themselves in passing sequences. In total Sterling was involved in 24 passing sequences which finished with a shot and 6 which finished with a goal. Kane was involved in 21 sequences that ended with a shot and 7 which ended with a goal. The total expected goals for movements (total expected goal value of unique open play shot or goal-ending sequences that a player was involved in) involving Sterling was 7.08 and 6.38 for those involving Kane. Kalvin Phillips was a distant third.

However, against Italy neither Kane nor Sterling managed a single shot. By controlling Kane and Sterling Italy was able to nullify most of England’s threat. With the next World Cup coming mid-season the need for a deep squad and alternatives is obvious. Rashford, or at least someone near him, could easily see that this season was his opportunity to push for a spot in Southgate’s plans either alongside Kane and Sterling or as a ready-made alternative to either. Rashford has the ability as both a centre forward or to play from either side. The spot was there for the taking. Get your head down and make it yours.

Yet, in the most recent England squad, Rashford was not called up. Instead, Ollie Watkins of Aston Villa was there, scoring and staking a claim. According to Gareth Southgate, it had been between Watkins or Patrick Bamford for the spot. No mention of Marcus Rashford.

The thing is Rashford hasn’t even made the decision hard for Southgate. He’s played just 974 minutes of football in the league this season, scoring 4 goals and making 2. Fourteen of his United teammates have played more minutes. Neither Kane nor Sterling has had a vintage season yet their numbers dwarf Rashford’s. Kane has played 2509 minutes in the league, scoring 12 and making 6. Sterling has 1651 minutes, 10 goals and 3 assists. Even Mason Greenwood, suspended since 30th January, has more minutes (1305) and goals (5) than Rashford.

It’s hard not to see this as a situation slipping away from Rashford. His last competitive start for England was on 14th October 2020. His last competitive international goal was on 11th October 2020. Recent history is full of promising England forwards who faded without a trace from the international scene: Daniel Sturridge, Danny Welbeck and Theo Walcott being three who spring to mind.

So what to make of reports he is looking for a move elsewhere? He certainly isn’t the only England player to struggle post-Euro 2020 nor is he the only United player who will want this season to have finished yesterday. Whoever replaces Ralf Rangnick will be Rashford’s sixth manager at Old Trafford (including caretakers and interims); one for every year since his debut. It is entirely reasonable for him to look at the hierarchy at United and wonder if he’s best out of it (although why he’d look at PSG for sanity is baffling).

Yet look at who he’s had to work with since his debut. When he first appeared for United one of his fellow forwards was a certain Wayne Rooney, someone surely able to give a young English forward a few pointers. Then came Zlatan Ibrahimović. Then Edinson Cavani. Then Cristiano Ronaldo. For all the chaos at Old Trafford in terms of striking pedigree it’s hard to think of a club anywhere where a young forward could have had a better peer group.

It was an injury crisis involving thirteen players which saw Marcus Rashford included in the United squad to face FC Midtjylland. When Anthony Martial was injured in the warm-up Rashford was told to start. He grabbed the opportunity. Three days later he started against Arsenal in the league. He grabbed the opportunity. Roy Hodgson later gave him his England debut against Australia. He grabbed the opportunity. This is not a player used to not succeeding in his targets. Add in his MBE and the fact that as a black player he still has to face horrific abuse from troglodytes online and it is impossible not to be impressed by Marcus Rashford.

However, it is hard not to agree with Rooney’s assessment of Rashford. England will start their 2022 World Cup campaign on 21st November. Between now and then there are six Nations League matches to play which Southgate will use to plan. Rashford needs to get his head out of his a**e and make sure he gets back in those plans. The opportunities are running out.

One leg is better than two: why we don't need two-legged fixtures in the Champions League & Europa League

The times they are a-changing. The last fortnight has seen the return of knock-out European football. Last autumn it was announced that UEFA look set to change the format of the Champions League in favour of a ‘Swiss system’ with four more matches. This will be a mistake. This is not the change needed. We got an idea of the change needed last summer.

* * *

Out of the horror of the COVID-19 pandemic have been glimpses at something different. Some of this has been profound: pollution reduced or the daily commute eliminated. Another change, albeit meaningless in the grand scheme of things but significant in its own way was the single-legged format of the final stage of the Champions League and Europa League held in Portugal and Germany respectively. As Arrigo Sacchi put it: “football is the most important of the least important things in life”.

The first European Cup in 1955–56 consisted of 29 matches from start to finish. The following year’s edition contained a preliminary round and tiebreakers and so consisted of 44 matches from start to finish. The 2018–19 tournament, not including qualifiers, consisted of 125.

In the 2018–19 Champions League, the knockout phase began on February 12th and consisted of twenty-eight matches before the final on 1st June. In the 2019–20 season once the single-legged format began at the quarter-final stage there were only 7 matches including the final between 12th and 23rd August. That was it. None of the coaches or players with one eye on domestic football between two legs of continental football, this was distilled and focused. In a summer where the European Championship was cancelled this was tournament football which, although without fans, was compelling in a way that the traditional format couldn’t achieve.

It seems every season now fixture congestion raises its head. We debate the merits of the League Cup, the need for FA Cup replays and a winter break. Yet every season we continue to play 28 matches over 3 months in the Champions League without question. In an age of great awareness over travel and its environmental impact as well as ever-greater squeezing of the football fan’s wallet could the knockout stages we’ve just seen be a blueprint for the future?

The double-legged format of the knockout stages of European club football has been in place since inception. In many ways, it’s a vestige of the competitions at their genesis, before group stages became entrenched in the 1990s and beyond. Back then it was knockout football from the beginning. Without seeding. In 1978 Nottingham Forest were rewarded for their league win with a first-round draw against defending European champions Liverpool. They won. In 1960 defending European champions and five times consecutive winners Real Madrid were drawn against Spanish champions Barcelona. And lost. You played the team you were drawn against home and away. Add up the aggregate score and whoever has the most goals went through. Simple.

The worth of group stages, wherein the Champions League 96 matches are played so the top-seeded 16 clubs invariably go through and the bottom seeded 16 go out, can be debated but won’t change as it’s UEFA’s concession to their lower-ranked members. With a group stage, even the worst teams are guaranteed 6 matches with all the involved money. That won’t change. Now we have an idea of what is possible with the knockout rounds. UEFA President Aleksander Ceferin has recently announced that the new format could be the future from the 2025 season. Should it be?

Of course, in order to change from two legs to one, we’d have to look at what we might lose. As a Manchester United fan, I think back to that second leg against Roma in 2007 turning a 2–1 first leg deficit around with a 7–1 win at home. Chelsea fans will point to Napoli in 2012 on their way to glory. Liverpool fans to Barcelona in 2019. The 2018–19 Champions League, in particular, was a season of great comebacks in the second leg for Manchester United, Ajax, Tottenham Hotspur and, of course, Liverpool. This is what romance in sport is made of: a team coming from behind to win against the odds.

But how often does it actually happen? The Champions League has been in its current format since 2003. The Europa League since 2009. In the 16 seasons between 2003 and 2019 that meant 448 knockout matches, not including finals for the Champions League. For the Europa League, that’s 600 from 2009 to 2019.

Let’s look at those matches and see which knockout fixtures ‘needed’ a second leg. To do that we’ll look at the number of knockout fixtures where a team lost the first leg but won the second. These are the only fixtures where the second leg ‘mattered’. We’ll then look at how many times that ‘changed’ the outcome of that particular fixture i.e. the team losing the first leg came from behind to go through. We won’t include ties where the first leg was drawn because in a single-leg fixture the match would just go to extra time. This is only the matches where a full second 90 minutes changed the outcome.

Champions League knockout fixtures 2003-2019.

In the Champions League, a team lost the first leg but won the second 42 times between 2003 and 2019. The peak was 7 times in 2011–12 and 2018–19. The lowest number was once in 2005–06 and 2008–09. There was no season where a team didn’t manage to go through despite losing the first leg. The peak of a team changing the outcome was in 2018–19 when the team winning the second leg after losing the first went through 86% of the time (6/7).

Europa League knockout fixtures 2009-2019.

In the Europa League, a team lost the first leg but won the second 76 times. The peak was 11 times in 2017–18. The lowest number was 6 times in 2013–14 and 2017–18. There was no season where a team didn’t manage to go through despite losing the first leg. The peak of a team changing the outcome was also in 2018–19 when the team winning the second leg after losing the first went through 83% of the time (5/6).

In the 64 times in the Champions League where a team won the second leg after losing the first, the outcome was changed 42 times (66%). In the Europa League, it mattered less: 40 times out of 76 (53%). So while it happened more often in the Europa League (not surprising given the greater number of matches played) the effect was larger in the Champions League. The pattern seems to be that if a team can win the second leg after losing the first they are more likely to go through than not, probably due to the psychological impact on their opponent.

In the 224 two-legged knockout Champions League fixtures between 2003 and 2019, a team losing the first leg but going through made up only 18.8% of fixtures

If we include all the fixtures, however, the second leg makes much less sense. In the 224 two-legged knockout Champions League fixtures between 2003 and 2019, a team went through despite losing the first leg in 18.8% of the ties.

In the 300 two-legged knockout Europa League fixtures between 2009 and 2019 a team losing the first leg but still going through made up only 13.3% of fixtures.

In the Europa League, the point of second legs is even less clear. In the 300 two-legged knockout fixtures between 2009 and 2019, a team going through despite losing the first leg made up only 13.3% of the total fixtures.

In all knockout fixtures in the Champions League between 2003 and 2019 and in the Europa League between 2009 and 2019 a team lost the first leg but managed to go through in 16% of two-legged fixtures.

If we add up the knockout matches for the Champions League and the Europa League that’s 1048 matches played when the second leg was actually needed only 16% of the time across the two competitions.

* * *

This is a decision of rationality vs romance. In 2018 after a first-leg defeat to PSG Ole Gunnar Solskjær opined that “mountains are there to be climbed. You can’t lay down and say ‘this is over’.” We then know what followed. A team coming from behind is probably the most powerful image in any sport. That’s why they stick with us. These are moments that define a season. Without a second leg, Real Madrid would have been knocked out by Wolfsburg in 2016 and not won the competition. Same for Liverpool in 2019. But as we’ve seen, they are rare.

There’s also the factor of a self-fulfilling prophecy here. When Barcelona took to the field at Anfield in 2019 how much was the result against Roma in 2018 playing on their mind? How much was that Barcelona result playing on the minds of the PSG players when they faced Manchester United? Surely it isn’t a coincidence that PSG made the final the season when they only had one two-legged fixture? Having come from behind to beat Atalanta 2–1 in the quarter-finals, would the narrative of bottlers have remained if they’d had to play a second leg?

Another benefit of switching to single legs would be removing the away goals rule. No change since abolishing back passes could improve the game as much. Away goals skew football: I remember in 2011 listening to Radio 5 Live and a Spurs fan called in to say he was disappointed his team had ‘only’ won 1–0 away to AC Milan and not 2–1 because then they could lose 1–0 at home and still go through. Bizarre. The away goal rule punishes a home team for playing on the front foot: better to win 2–0 and stop than carry on attacking and win 3–1 or 4–2. This is insanity. Think of the cynicism we’d lose in one fell swoop.

Olympique Lyonnais played above and beyond against Manchester City last summer and won 3–1. Imagine the narrative under the traditional format. City would have another 90 minutes to come from behind. If their goal were an away goal City might even be favourites still. What if Bayern Munich and Barcelona had to play a second leg after the 8–2? A pointless 90 minutes which could only have threatened injury and suspension for Bayern Munich and embarrassment for Barcelona. As it was Bayern Munich and Lyon won and were through. Barcelona and Manchester City lost and were out. Done and finished after 90 minutes as codified in 1897.

The prestige of the Champions League is the jewel in UEFA’s crown. FIFA has looked enviously at Europe’s premier competition which is largely behind its decision to expand the FIFA World Club Cup. To reduce the number of matches would go against the general trend of football: more teams, more games, more money. Yet this summer we’ve had a glimpse of something else. Crisp and succinct. Rather than a bloated competition across countries and months, this was engrossing tournament football. The only thing it was missing was fans. Once they’re back UEFA could be onto something here. One leg is better than two.







It's Official: Liverpool are currently worse than David Moyes's Manchester United

In the pantheon of appalling Premier League titles Chelsea 2015/16 and Leicester City 2016/17 stand front and centre as the worst examples. Following this, however, would have to be David Moyes’s Manchester United 2013/14. Moyes’s nine-month stint went from being handpicked as Sir Alex Ferguson’s ‘chosen one’ to his banner being almost torn down by angry fans. Liverpool fans at the time gloated about the Scotsman’s troubles. Yet, now in the defence of their first Premier League title, the Merseysiders are officially worse in terms of points than Moyes’s Red Devils.

***

On 9th February 2014 Manchester United found themselves, after 25 league matches played, 7th in the league following a 2-2 draw at home with Fulham. This was the match of 81 crosses, 18 of which found a teammate, as Ferguson’s former first -team coach René Meulensteen left Old Trafford with a point. Manchester United had already exited the FA Cup at the third round to Swansea City and, having made the semi-finals, were knocked out of the League Cup on penalties to Sunderland. They had won their Champions League Group and were about to play Olympiacos in the Round of 16 before being knocked out by Bayern Munich in the Quarter-Finals. Their only piece of silverware of the season was the 2013 Community Shield beating Wigan Athletic. 

On 20th February 2020 Liverpool played their 25th league match of the 2020/21 season losing 2-0 at home to Everton. This was their fourth defeat in a row. They are sixth in the league. They already have been knocked out of the FA Cup by Manchester United in the fourth round and out of the League Cup by Arsenal, also in the fourth round. Like Manchester United, they won their Champions League group yet look far from the favourites for the competition. They also lost the 2020 Community Shield to Arsenal. 

Liverpool have won fewer matches and conceded more than Moyes’s United. They have managed more goals and fewer defeats but the end result is 40 points from 25 matches compared to Moyses’s 41 from 25 in 2014.

Looking at the drop in quality from the previous season is startling. Moyes was always going to struggle coming in after Sir Alex yet it was still surprising when his United won 21 fewer points after 25 matches than the 2012/13 champions had managed. Liverpool have managed to drop 33 points from the same position last season.

***

Much has been made of Liverpool’s injuries and the strange circumstances of the pandemic. True, Jurgen Klopp’s choice of a thin squad has backfired yet in many ways this drop in quality was predictable. As I’ve already written Liverpool outperformed their expected points last season by nearly 25. 14 of their 32 wins were by a single goal. After 25 matches last season Liverpool were outperforming their expected points by 20.41 points. 

In comparison, this season they would be expected only 3.99 more points than they’ve achieved. In other words whilst they were overperforming by 20.41 points they are only slightly underperforming this time around. Unfortunately, the data for the 2013/14 season is not available to compare. Regression to the mean was to be expected and we are seeing it now. Their 7–2 defeat to Aston Villa was due to be the biggest away defeat of the season until United beat Southampton 9–0. Regression to the mean was to be expected and we are seeing it now. Their 7-2 defeat to Aston Villa was due to be the biggest away defeat of the season until United beat Southampton 9-0. 

Liverpool are now 19 points from the summit of the Premier League. Their championship defence now ranks along with Moyse. Klopp has already conceded the title. He has experienced tremendous tragedy in recent months which must be putting a lot of his team’s travails into perspective and deserves immense sympathy. Maybe he’ll take a break soon. His Dortmund side of 2014/15 serves as a warning. Whilst it would be fanciful to see his Liverpool fighting relegation it is possible that there is more gas in this explosion. 

Reasons to be Cheerful if You're Not a Liverpool Fan: how the champions overachieved and may not be as good as we think

jurgen-klopp_3541071b_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqpJliwavx4coWFCaEkEsb3kvxIt-lGGWCWqwLa_RXJU8-1.jpg

30 years of hurt are over.  Blackburn Rovers and Leicester City have been knocked off their effing perches.  Liverpool have their first Premier League title.  In case you were in any doubt: This Matters More and You’ll Never Walk Alone. (Unless you’re the staff they attempted to furlough or Liverpool Women neglected to their fate).

There have been and will continue to be plenty of puff pieces on this subject.  The world according to Steve McManaman or Jim Beglin.  Where Anfield is home to special fans who know football better than others who support a club with history; because no other club has passionate fans or history.  A world where Michael Owen is suddenly a Liverpool fan again and thinks that the highest point of Atletico Madrid’s existence was winning on Merseyside.  A world where a recent BBC programme chronicled Liverpool’s title charge as an almost biblical mission.   

And so with a snort of derision I find myself wondering: are Liverpool actually THAT good? Yes, I’m a Manchester United fan and yes, this is (slightly) tongue in cheek but are they?

There was once a role within the Catholic Church to provide evidence against the canonisation of a candidate.  The advocatus diaboli or ‘Devil’s Advocate’ would seek out holes in the argument to award sainthood.  Consider this playing (red) devil’s advocate against the imperious reputation of Liverpool this season.  Before you accuse me: yes, of course I’m bitter.  Liverpool won the Premier League at a canter and, rightly, won plaudits.  However, I’m going to put their season under some scrutiny and use data to answer the question: Are there reasons to be cheerful if you’re not a Liverpool fan looking ahead to next season?  Is there a chance they won’t retain the title?

A glance at the 2019-20 Premier League table is impressive.  There’s Liverpool on 99 points; 18 clear of Manchester City.  Only once before had a club won the league with more points.  Surely there is no questioning their dominance?  Enter statistics.  

Whilst VAR hogs most discussions regarding recent updates to the world of football, for me Expected Goals (EG) has been a far more interesting and illuminating way of looking at the game.  It’s a simple piece of data with far reaching potential.  Each chance at goal is given a numerical value, or xG, between 0-1.  This value basically reflects how hard or easy that chance is.  A shot with an xG of 0.5 means it would be scored 50% of the time.  A shot with an xG of 0.9 would be scored 90% of the time.  And so on.  This BBC Sport article goes into depth about how each chance is awarded a value but, essentially, the closer you are to the goal and the ‘easier’ the shot the higher the xG.  

If you think about it this has the chance to revolutionise how we look at football.  Rather than simply measuring a striker’s quality by goals scored we can look at their xG: do they match their xG (score as many as they should based on difficulty of the chance) or do they exceed or even fall under it?  The same principle works on a defence.  Say a team concedes a lot of shots on goal, we might be tempted to think their defence was poor.  However, they may be employing a low block and, as a result, concede a lot of long shots which count as a shot on goal but have a low xG.  This would give that team a low EG against and more accurately reflect how well they were defending. 

If we can calculate the EG scored (xGs) and EG against (xGa) for both teams during a match we can calculate the result that statistically ‘should’ have happened.  

For example, Liverpool started the 2019-20 season with a 4-1 thrashing of newly promoted Norwich City.  The EGs for both teams was 2.23 for Liverpool and 0.43 for Norwich City.  So, actually both teams scored more than their EG suggests but the result would still have been a Liverpool win.  

Their next match was a 2-1 win away at Southampton.  A statement of intent.  Looking again at the EG and we are given a score of 2.14 - 1.52 in Southampton’s favour.  According to statistics Liverpool should not have won this match.  Not surprising when you might remember this match contained Danny Ings’s horror miss from a few yards out.  

On September 22nd they racked up their sixth straight win away at Stamford Bridge.  However EG shows that rather than a 2-1 away win the chances created would indicate a score of 1.23 to 1.03 in Chelsea’s favour.  

By November 10th Liverpool looked like champions elect already with a 3-1 win against defending champions Manchester City at Anfield 3-1.  The EG score? 1.33 - 1.48.  Another win that shouldn’t have been.

Through the EGs for each match we can then calculate the Expected Points (EP) that team ‘should’ have acquired based on the chances they were making and conceding during the season.  As you may have guessed, looking at Liverpool’s EP tells an interesting story.

Here’s the final 2019-2020 table as it was:

Here it is based on EP:

Liverpool outperformed their EP by 24.72.  They scored 9.81 goals more and conceded 6.57 fewer than their xGs and xGa would suggest.  Based on EP they should have been second,  12 points behind Manchester City and only 4 above Manchester United in 4th.  

As I said before the game isn’t played on the pitch so there’s obviously going to be some discrepancy and teams will over-perform to some extent.  To see the biggest ‘overachievers’ in the 2019-20 Premier League season I subtracted EP from actual points.  This is the top five:

Liverpool overachieved more than any other club, double the degree of Newcastle United, who came second in this table.  I think we’d all agree that Steve Bruce did good work at Newcastle United but based on EP his team would have been relegated at the rock bottom.  What does that say about Liverpool?  OK, maybe this was a fluke and Liverpool were simply on a roll this season. Let’s look at 2018-19; the season where Liverpool lost only once, won 97 points and finished second.  Here’s the top four as it finished:

Incredibly, Liverpool outperformed their EP by 13.55.  Once again they were the highest overachievers.  In 2017-2018 the highest overachievers were Jose Mourinho’s Manchester United who finished second but should have finished sixth.  And we know how that played out.


So, over the course of 2 seasons, Liverpool have outperformed their EP by a staggering 38.72 points.  This is obviously commendable but is it sustainable? The received wisdom was that Leicester City’s fairy story in 2016 was a one-off and so it came to pass.  However, they only exceeded their EP by 12.06.  By comparison, in winning the Bundesliga Bayern Munich exceeded their EP by only 4.67 in 2020 and actually should have had 4 more points in 2019. Manchester City in their disaster of a season should have won the league this year.


Why the discrepancy?  How did Liverpool finish 18 points ahead of Manchester City when they should have been 12 behind? Of their 32 wins, 14 (44.75%) were by one goal.  In comparison in 2018/19 only 9 (28.125%) of Manchester City’s wins were by one goal.  Manchester City outperformed Liverpool by 17 goals scored and only conceded 2 goals more.  But they lost 9 games to Liverpool’s 3.  5 of those defeats were by only one goal.  These are the margins behind the story of the 2019-20 season.   A compelling story but not one which should make the chasing pack terrified for the new season.

So how have Liverpool been able to exceed EP and beat the model?  There’s been a bit of talk about this and in my opinion, this is the real question which needs answering and isn’t amongst all the plaudits.  Of course, Liverpool played very well but they only have the player of the season if you’ve never heard of Kevin de Bruyne.  The number of one-goal wins and their xGa suggests they own a lot more to Alisson than any other player.  Of course, it’s not a bad thing to have a good goalkeeper: in fact, it’s essential.  We don’t know whether if Liverpool did concede more they wouldn’t have just gone up the other end and scored more rather than seeing a match out.  But we can only look at the data we have.

There is lots of discussion about Liverpool’s style of play and their manager’s tactical acumen.  To my mind as long as Pep Guardiola resides on these shores I’d argue that Klopp could only be second in the list of most interesting tacticians in the Premier League.  Now Marcelo Bielsa will be plying his trade in the top flight Jurgen is third at best. Maybe the over-performance of Liverpool over the past two seasons shows us that this is not where his strengths lie: rather it is about eking out consistency from his players as well as managing situations within a game.  An emotive coach, it was inevitable that he would work at Liverpool: an emotive club.  Perhaps only Diego Simeone embodies the very persona of his team in a greater way than Klopp does.

Klopp has shown how he is the master of managing situations and matches.  His Champions League triumph in 2019 owed much to managing moments: a knockout round place earned thanks to a 1-0 win against a sleepy Napoli with Arkadiusz Milik hitting an injury-time chance straight at Alisson; a buoyant semi-final against a Barcelona so emotionally fragile they were capable of throwing away a 3-0 lead; a final facing a broken Spurs team which lasted all of two minutes until a dubious penalty was awarded.  They managed the match at 1-0 and scored a late second.

In 2019-20 Klopp then brought this to their league form: securing single goal margins and seeing a game out.  This would put him at the pinnacle of the psychological aspect of the game.  Gareth Southgate has done much with England to help them manage high pressure situations as well as using emotions for advantage.  Ole Gunnar Solskjaer at Manchester United, Frank Lampard at Chelsea, Zinedine Zidane at Real Madrid and now Andrea Pirlo at Juventus are all appointments based on emotions. Perhaps their records as players speak more to modern players than tacticians like Jose Mourinho, Rafael Benitez or Maurizio Sarri, coaches with no playing career to speak of.  In a game of high-profile moments with season-defining jeopardy, maybe Jurgen Klopp has turned owning the match into an art.  Maybe that is where his plaudits should actually lie. 

Jurgen Klopp is a fascinating character.  The general image is of him laughing and joking yet some had a certain Portuguese manager screamed at a linesman, run onto a pitch, criticised the tactics of Manchester United in the league and Atlético Madrid, played a youth team in the League Cup and refused to attend a FA Cup match it is tempting to wonder if the press would remain as positive.  He’s winning now and it is easy to be nice when you’re winning.  Yet his final season at Borussia Dortmund should serve as a warning.  At Christmas, the club he had won two titles with and taken to the Champions League final were in the relegation zone.  He took them back up to the Europa League places before resigning. Perhaps when the power to control moments slips so too do the results.  Maybe this is the downside of an emotive coach at an emotive club.  The first match of the 2020-21 season against Leeds United may be instructive.

Of course, in order for Liverpool to lose the title, someone else has to win it.  Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United are all in decent places.  Mikel Arteta is showing promise, Chelsea are assembling an intriguing squad and Manchester United have their most entertaining group of attacking players since the days of Sir Alex.  Yet it is hard to see any of them taking the title just yet.  Although based on EP Chelsea and Manchester United were much closer to Liverpool than the table would tell us and should be encouraged. The favourite to stop Liverpool remains Pep Guardiola, though.

Guardiola is entering his first fifth season at a club. This is uncharted territory.  Yet the manager who turns diligence to obsession will want to win back the league.  And it is closer than you think  Turn those 5 single goal defeats to draws and that 18 point gap becomes 8. If 4 of Liverpool’s 14 single goal wins become draws and that 18 point gap is gone.

Finally, this is not an era of eras.  Since 2009 only one club has retained the Premier League. For several of those campaigns such as Manchester United in 2013-14, Manchester City in 2014-15 and 2019-20; Chelsea in 2015-16 and 2017-18 and Leicester in 2016-17 title defences were non-existent.  Jurgen Klopp did retain the Bundesliga once with Borussia Dortmund but then failed to match Bayern Munich.  He would do well to not slip into hubris.  To look at the data and perhaps reflect on how this league title was won.  And how it might be taken off him far easier than we might think.