The win against West Ham had it all: a come-from-behind win with a late winner and an even later penalty save from David de Gea.
What to make of Manchester United’s away record?
Sunday’s win over West Ham United has taken the Red Devils’ away record to 29 without defeat, all the way back to a 2-0 defeat at Anfield on 19th January 2020. As has been widely reported, this is an English league record overshadowing the Invincible Arsenal record of 27 away matches without defeat. Obviously, Arsenal’s record stands as one of English football’s shining examples. But what of United’s?
Played 29 Won 19 Drawn 10 Goals For 53 Goals Against 20 Points 67 (out of a possible 87)
The win on Sunday was the tenth comeback win in this record. Four of the drawn matches also involved coming from behind (interestingly all finished 1-1 with the latest being the away match against Southampton this season). That means that 14 out of the 29 matches (48%) have seen United concede first. It also means that 34 of the 67 points (51%) gained on this run involved coming from behind.
Comparing United’s away results and points this season …
Southampton 1 - 1 Manchester United
Wolverhampton Wanderers 0 - 1 Manchester United
West Ham United 1 - 2 Manchester United
Played 3 Won 2 Drawn 1 Lost 0 Goals For 4 Goals Against 2 Points 7
… to those based on expected goals (xG):
Southampton 0.59 - 2.28 Manchester United
Wolverhampton Wanderers 1.8 - 0.94 Manchester United
West Ham United 1.67 - 1.9 Manchester United
Played 3 Won 2 Drawn 0 Lost 1 Goals For 5.12 Goals Against 4.06 Points 6
United should have lost against Wolves but they should have beaten Southampton. In the end they are only outperforming their expected points by one away from home. In other words, they’re not really over-performing on the road so far this season. Clearly, having won more than half of their points coming on behind on this away run this can’t be a fluke. Something more is going on. Maybe it’s to do with how United set up away from home. In one word: deep.
Against West Ham Manchester United had 60% possession and completed 90% of their 624 passes. Impressive, but where United pass tells a story.
Of United’s top ten passing combinations against West Ham, three were between two defenders and one was between de Gea and Varane. This is definitely a pattern on the road. In their previous away match at Wolves six of United’s top ten (and four of their top five!) passing combinations were between two defenders. In their last home match, however, against Newcastle, only one of United’s top ten passing combinations was between two defenders. For all of the drama, United are very cautious on the road and liable to get pinned back against their own box with a lot of possession going to their defenders. Even the way they conceded, with a deflection off Varane, was similar to the way they went behind against Southampton.
For all of the possession, United’s attacking midfield three were somewhat blunt as well. Despite Pogba’s recent successes playing in the midfield base, here he was back on the left of a three with Fernandes and Greenwood. It wasn’t a match where any of them really showed his best. Of Pogba’s 57 successful passes just 14 (25%) were in the attacking third. For Greenwood, it was 16/35 (46%) and 22/57 (39%) for Fernandes. 7 of Pogba’s passes were forward with 9 from Greenwood and 19 from Fernandes. Fernandes had 3 shots, 2 on target and 1 blocked. Pogba had 2 shots; one was off target and one blocked. Greenwood didn’t have a single shot and only managed two take-ons and so failed to show one of his key attributes: pace.
Ronaldo the new van Nistelrooy?
Between 2001 and 2006 Ruud van Nistelrooy scored 150 goals for Manchester United. Only one came from a shot outside the box; he was the archetypal poacher. But his perceived inflexibility was one of the reasons he was jettisoned as Sir Aex Ferguson sought a more fluid style of play and a front three of Rooney, Ronaldo and Tevez would see United become champions of Europe in 2008. Ironically, considering his role in van Nistelrooy leaving, Ronaldo has returned with similar instincts. His goal against West Ham was the second from within the six-yard box since his return after his opener against Newcastle.
As Understat data show all but one of his shots in the league have been inside the penalty box. Two of his three goals showed great anticipation to jump on a loose ball from the goalkeeper. It’s a tactic with a high chance of reward: the xG for his opener against Newcastle was 0.89 whilst the xG for his goal on Sunday was 0.84. The Ronaldo ‘running on the wing’ and scoring wonder goals looks to be a thing of the past.
De Gea about as good as Lloris
This season was going to be difficult for David de Gea. No longer number one for Spain, he was going to second choice to Dean Henderson after a penalty shout-out against Villareal which saw him concede all eleven kicks and miss his own. Of course, his performance in the shout-out in Gdansk was more mixed than people made out at the time. Yes, he was sent the wrong way by three of the kickers:
But on two of the kicks he managed to get a hand to the ball. Not great, but not a disaster either.
What was forgotten in the analysis was the mess Gerónimo Rulli made of Luke Shaw’s penalty, allowing the ball to squirm under him and make it 8-8 in the shoot-out. Such are the vagaries of football Rulli went on to be the hero and de Gea the villain but that nuance got lost in the analysis.
And so to now: Henderson is out after contracting COVID-19 and de Gea is number one again. Following his save against Wolves and now his penalty save against Mark Noble, his first since saving Romelu Lukaku’s spot kick in 2016, he’s achieved that thing beloved of journalists: redemption.
But how is actually doing this season? Date from The Analyst show that only Alisson of Liverpool has a higher goals prevented rate but already the Brazilian and Mendy of Chelsea are starting to standout in terms of goals prevented. The performance thus far of Liverpool and Chelsea, both on 13 points with United, seems to owe a lot to their keepers’ form.
Instead, de Gea’s goals prevented and goals prevented rate both look remarkably similar to another ‘keeper who often receives criticism: Hugo Lloris of Spurs.
Statistics from the Manchester United smartphone application, Stats Zone, Understat and The Analyst