In a way, this is an analysis that is decided by the outcome. Bruno Fernandes, with 42 penalties scored and three missed, steps up against Emiliano Martínez who at that point had faced 24 penalties and conceded 18, including one from Fernandes earlier this year. It’s fair to say a goal was expected. United get a late point, Liverpool and Chelsea both drop points and it’s on to the next one
Except Bruno didn’t score. Instead of scoring number 43, he missed number 4. And after blazing his shot over United lost at home. A defeat rooted in team selection, injury and substitutions.
Solskjaer named an unchanged side from the win over West Ham. That win featured cautious play with possession played mostly involving defenders. The decision to play ‘McFred’ against an Aston Villa side who were obviously going to try and sit deep was a cautious one.
Was a double midfield pivot needed to protect a backline featuring a central partnership that cost United a combined £121 million and represent 120 senior international caps between them? And what was their contribution?
United had 65% possession and completed 313 passes to Villa’s 187. They ‘won’ the match on xG: 1.93 to 1.57. They had 28 shots to Villa’s 7. Yet when it came to shots on target United managed only 4 and Villa had 3. This was the classic smash-and-grab from Villa.
All of United’s shots on target were within the Villa box yet all were poor quality. Two were from Greenwood (xG of 0.10 and 0.09) one from Pogba ( xG of 0.03) and one from Maguire (xG 0.02). Ronaldo and Cavani, later brought on, managed one shot off target between them. United’s chance with the highest xG was Fernandes’s penalty (0.76). United were obviously going to dominate possession and so needed to create good quality chances. Had it not been for the penalty United’s xG for a match in which they had 65% possession and 28 shots would have been only 1.17.
‘McFred’ completed 54 passes between them. 27 went forward, which doesn’t seem too bad, but only 10 were in the final third. And as far as destroying goes, they managed only 4 tackles between them and 1 intervention.
This also meant that, again, Pogba was played on the left of the attacking midfield three. In a previous blog I pointed out how Pogba had flourished playing deeper in midfield against Wolves and Newcastle United. Against Newcastle by himself he completed nearly double (106) the total managed by ‘McFred’ against Villa. Playing Pogba further forward also completely negates one of his best weapons: precise long passes perfect for a pacey forward such as Greenwood, Sancho or a fit Rashford. Against Villa, Pogba had an expected assist of only 0.10 as opposed to 1.58 against Newcastle.
Greenwood did attempt 7 take-ons against Villa but it’s common sense that two pacey wingers would have given the Villains more to think about.
The decision by the Premier League to revert back to three substitutions last season didn’t make sense and it still doesn’t. The repercussions were felt in this match. After picking a conservative starting line-up Solskjaer then had to ‘spend’ two of his three substitutions on defenders due to injuries: Dalot for Shaw and Lindelöf for Maguire. This decision meant that as United continued to dominate the match yet struggle to break Villa down Solskjaer had only one more substitution to win the game.
In the 81st minute, he took off McTominey for Cavani. Cavani, like Ronaldo, is mostly a box-based forward. United, therefore, had two forwards sitting in the box yet no way of increasing their service. And in doing so Lingard, scorer of two goals in his previous two United appearances, and £166 million of investment in Sancho, van de Beek and Martial remained on the bench. Of course, rather than replacing Shaw and Maguire like for like Solskjaer could have brought on another midfielder and changed formation. All in all, Solskjaer’s changes lacked imagination.
It’s tempting to think that with five substitutions allowed two of those players would have been brought on. The amount of talent and expenditure Solskjaer isn’t turning to is piling up. To have van de Beek sitting on the bench is bad enough. To have Sancho there after all the hassle of his transfer would be a tragedy.
As it was this wasn’t a ‘bad’ match to lose as Liverpool and Chelsea also dropped points. And, had Bruno scored, the narrative could have been of resilient United fighting to the end. As it was this was a defeat born out of the perfect storm of a poor team choice and a mixture of bad luck and lack of imagination when it came to substitutions.
All statistics courtesy of Understat , the Manchester United smartphone app and TheStatZone